Black Book Live reveals dynamics behind market slowdown

Black Book Live reveals dynamics behind market slowdown


  • Dealer caution returns
  • Used car stock desirability reduces
  • Prices remain stronger than last year
  • Retail demand remains consistent

RESEARCH for Black Book Live has revealed weakening used car trade values during November as supply increases and dealers become more cautious.

Black Book Live gives a unique perspective on used car price dynamics as the only independent real time used valuations guide in the market.

CAP’s ‘Black Book Live Market Dashboard’ update for mid-November reveals the impact of an influx of lower quality cars. The ‘auction buzz’ – an internal CAP measure of the mood at sales – clearly reveals a downward trend. And dealers’ perception of the desirability of stock on offer is also taking a tumble. This has resulted in reducing values.

However, CAP is urging the market to recognise the on-going strength of prices compared to historical performance. Last year underlying values reduced between September and November by 2.8%. This year the figure over the same period was 1.5%.

One of the key dynamics that has led to the relatively low depreciation of cars this year has been the maintenance of stable retail demand. An index forming part of the Black Book Live research process measures dealer perceptions of customer appetite for their cars and subsequent sales activity. This measure has remained consistent since the measure was introduced in June.

CAP’s Mike Hind said: “Black Book Live users are now seeing values reducing on a daily basis, in contrast to the months of stability earlier in the year. This is driven by the increase in supply from sources such as dealer part-exchanges which have remained unsold or which were never suitable for retail. Our measures of the mood at auction and dealer perceptions of stock offered in the open market are a perfect illustration of the underlying dynamic of the current market.

“Not all values are falling, however, and there are real opportunities for anyone with their finger on the daily pulse of the market to make some quick trade purchase or disposal wins even as the market slows. The key is knowing which way individual model values are moving, which is where Black Book Live users have an advantage over those who stick with a traditional monthly guide”.


For further information contact Mike Hind, Communications Manager, CAP on 0113 222 2044 / 07710 152030