LCV Editorial June 2014
The slowdown in the used LCV wholesale market we reported in last month’s edition has continued along the same path. We placed this down to the seasonal effect of the Easter Holidays, however, this seems to have continued longer than expected with considerably lower auction attendances and sales conversion rates evident throughout May.
Discerning professional buyers appeared to be more selective with regard to age, mileage and condition and, generally, they seemed to be buying vehicles in lower numbers than we have observed of late. Sales conversion rates were reported to be down by around 15%-20% which gave credence to comments we’d heard from some dealers about a drop off in retail demand.
As we keep saying though, with the UK economy improving at a rate that appears to be confounding even the most seasoned pundits, we don’t see anything on the horizon to suggest that another crisis might be on the way. It seems more likely that we have been witnessing the release of some pent up demand over the past few months and this has resulted in used wholesale prices for many models reaching record levels. In the longer term this was always going to be unsustainable because used retail prices were getting far too close to vehicle manufacturer’s list prices.
With many manufacturer approved dealers offering discounts on new and pre-registered models, for many owner/operators and SMEs, the viability of buying a used LCV was becoming increasingly questionable and the used LCV market could easily have become a victim of its own success. Compared to last month, auction entries were up by 23% whilst the average age of vehicles increased slightly from 63 months to 64 months. The average recorded mileage decreased slightly from 84,967 to 81,836 miles and, from our own independent vehicle inspections, the average repair cost for body panel damage on vehicles presented for sale has increased from £310 to £413 over the month.
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LCV Used Stock Trends |
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LCV Sector |
January |
February |
March |
April |
May |
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Auction Entries % change from previous month |
+17% |
-8.5% |
+1.5% |
-7% |
+23% |
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Average Age (Months) |
60 |
65 |
65 |
63 |
64 |
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Average Mileage |
85,026 |
86,343 |
83,756 |
84,967 |
81,836 |
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Average Body Repair Cost |
£370 |
£249 |
£311 |
£312 |
£413 |
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June: LCV Used Guide Price Movements 3 year / 60k |
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LCV Sector |
Average % Movement |
Average Value May |
Average Value June |
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Car Derived Van |
-1.6% |
£4,109 |
£4,043 |
|
Light Van |
-2.6% |
£4,139 |
£4,032 |
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Medium Van |
-3.7% |
£6,045 |
£5,818 |
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Up to 3.5T |
0.4% |
£8,990 |
£9,030 |
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Over 3.5T |
1.0% |
£10,779 |
£10,910 |
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4x4 Pick-up Workhorse |
-5.3% |
£10,251 |
£9,709 |
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4x4 Pick-up Lifestyle SUV |
-6.0% |
£10,491 |
£9,862 |
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Forward Control Vehicle |
2.9% |
£9,381 |
£9,658 |
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Mini-bus |
-1.9% |
£9,487 |
£9,309 |
|
Vat Qualifying |
-3.0% |
£11,535 |
£11,190 |
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March 2014 |
April 2014 |
May 2014 |
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LCV Sector |
Market Share |
Performance |
Market Share |
Performance |
Market Share |
Performance |
|
Car Derived Van |
4.18% |
102.64% |
5.87% |
99.61% |
4.39% |
97.34% |
|
Light Van |
22.01% |
100.02% |
21.70% |
95.43% |
23.59% |
93.18% |
|
Medium Van |
8.80% |
97.12% |
9.36% |
95.03% |
9.99% |
92.87% |
|
Up to 3.5T |
51.12% |
103.45% |
50.14% |
99.75% |
47.60% |
97.25% |
|
Over 3.5T |
0.15% |
111.23% |
0.14% |
94.44% |
0.09% |
101.47% |
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4x4 Pick-up Workhorse |
2.80% |
97.85% |
2.59% |
97.04% |
2.98% |
95.04% |
|
4x4 Pick-up Lifestyle SUV |
8.35% |
98.52% |
7.62% |
96.41% |
8.69% |
94.39% |
|
Forward Control Vehicle |
0.15% |
120.38% |
0.28% |
101.21% |
0.28% |
98.94% |
|
Mini-bus |
0.98% |
93.45% |
1.20% |
103.66% |
0.99% |
97.20% |
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Vat Qualifying |
1.46% |
103.99% |
1.08% |
102.85% |
1.39% |
98.11% |
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Total Market |
100.00% |
101.48% |
100.00% |
98.12% |
100.00% |
95.56% |
The top 10 models in the sector tables below are intended to give you a clearer view of what’s driving the market. It should be noted that that the Sector Share is based on actual sales and not the availability of these models in the marketplace. The %CAP performance values are also based on actual sales.
Since our guide values reflect the market prices of basic vans in plain white as they appear in the vehicle manufacturer’s price lists, some of guide price movements you might see in this edition may not correlate directly with the sales performances shown in the tables which include vehicles in all colours and specifications.
In some of these tables you may also notice the same model description appearing more than once, however, the CAP Identity numbers will always be unique. Generally the lower CAP Identity numbers signify older models and higher ones are newer models; further details can be found by looking up the model/CAP Id number in the prices section of the guide.
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APId |
Car Derived Van |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
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9733 |
ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Club 1.7 CDTi Van |
15.98% |
100.7% |
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9731 |
ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Club 1.3 CDTi Van |
13.61% |
94.0% |
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15854 |
FIESTA DIESEL - 1.4 TDCi Van |
10.06% |
100.4% |
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11121 |
CORSAVAN DIESEL - 1.3 CDTi 16V Van |
9.47% |
86.2% |
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8815 |
FIESTA DIESEL - 1.4 TDCi Van |
8.28% |
91.8% |
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9734 |
ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Sportive 1.7 CDTi Van |
7.69% |
97.1% |
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9736 |
ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Sportive 1.9 CDTi Van |
6.51% |
102.8% |
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15855 |
FIESTA DIESEL - 1.4 TDCi Trend Van |
3.55% |
100.1% |
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7585 |
ASTRAVAN DIESEL - Sportive 1.7CDTi 16V (ABS) |
2.37% |
96.1% |
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5377 |
206 DIESEL - 1.4 HDi Van |
1.78% |
59.4% |
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Overall, market prices in the Car Derived sector have dropped by around 2% over the past month and this has been reflected in this edition with most values decreasing by a similar amount. The only exceptions apply to all models in the FORD FIESTA (09- ) VAN range. We have taken the opportunity to review the model relationships and age depreciation rate within this range to more accurately reflect sales performance against the guide values. This has resulted in some significant guide price movements for this range. |
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CAPId |
Light Van |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
|
|
7694 |
COMBO DIESEL - 1700 1.3CDTi 16V Van |
7.93% |
58.4% |
|
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7696 |
COMBO DIESEL - 2000 1.3CDTi 16V Van |
6.34% |
80.2% |
|
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7373 |
CADDY C20 DIESEL - 1.9TDI PD 104PS Van |
4.53% |
105.8% |
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7352 |
CADDY C20 DIESEL - 2.0SDI PD 69PS Van |
4.19% |
108.4% |
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15230 |
PARTNER L1 DIESEL - 850 S 1.6 HDi 90 Van [SLD] |
3.96% |
90.8% |
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11465 |
COMBO DIESEL - 2000 1.3CDTi 16V Van [75PS] |
3.28% |
85.3% |
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20703 |
CADDY C20 DIESEL - 1.6 TDI 102PS Van |
2.60% |
103.8% |
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18445 |
BERLINGO L1 DIESEL - 1.6 HDi 625Kg Enterprise 75ps |
2.60% |
99.9% |
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18446 |
BERLINGO L1 DIESEL - 1.6 HDi 850Kg Enterprise 90ps |
2.60% |
93.7% |
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11464 |
COMBO DIESEL - 1700 1.3CDTi 16V Van [75PS] |
2.60% |
92.0% |
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The average market prices of most models in the Light Van sector were down by around -3% resulting in a corresponding downward movement in the guide prices in this edition. Vauxhall Combo (2001-2012) models accounted for around 30% of all sales and failed to achieve the guide values by a wide margin, consequently we have reduced the values across all models in this range by -8%. Notable exceptions… CITROEN NEMO (08- ) VAN (-1%); PEUGEOT BIPPER (08- ) VAN (-1%); FIAT FIORINO (08- ) VAN (-1%); RENAULT KANGOO (08-13) VAN (0%); VW CADDY (04-10) C20 VAN (0%); VAUXHALL COMBO (01-12) VAN (-8%) |
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CAPId |
Medium Van |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
|
|
6314 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL - Low Roof Van L TDdi 75ps |
8.11% |
54.6% |
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11134 |
DISPATCH L2 DIESEL - 1200 1.6 HDi 90 H1 Van |
6.76% |
89.5% |
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6321 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 230 LWB DIESEL - High Roof Van L TDCi 90ps |
6.49% |
87.0% |
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16514 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 230 LWB DIESEL - High Roof Van TDCi 90ps |
5.41% |
102.7% |
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11123 |
DISPATCH L1 DIESEL - 1000 1.6 HDi 90 H1 Van |
4.86% |
97.0% |
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10378 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL - Low Roof Van L TDCi 75ps |
4.59% |
90.5% |
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10385 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 220 SWB DIESEL - Low Roof Van L TDCi 75ps |
4.32% |
100.6% |
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16534 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 200 SWB DIESEL - Low Roof Van TDCi 75ps |
4.05% |
97.1% |
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6317 |
TRANSIT CONNECT 220 SWB DIESEL - Low Roof Van L TDCi 90ps |
3.24% |
87.3% |
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11155 |
EXPERT L1 DIESEL - 1000 1.6 HDi 90 H1 Van |
3.24% |
96.8% |
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Average prices have fallen again in this sector resulting in a -3% downward market price movement across most makes/models. Citroen Dispatches from a large telecommunications and media company continue to dominate this sector and are failing to achieve guide values by a wide mark. Notable exceptions this month are... CITROEN DISPATCH (07- ) VAN (-6%); FORD CONNECT (02-07) T200 PET VAN (0%); FORD CONNECT (02-09) T200-T230 VAN (0%); FORD CONNECT (02-08) T210 PET VAN (0%); FORD CONNECT (09- ) T200-T230 VAN (-1%) PEUGEOT EXPERT (07- ) VAN (-6%) |
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CAPId |
Up to 3.5T |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
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9104 |
TRANSIT 260 SWB DIESEL FWD - Low Roof Van TDCi 85ps |
3.73% |
94.3% |
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9155 |
TRANSIT 280 SWB DIESEL FWD - Low Roof Van TDCi 85ps |
3.28% |
96.7% |
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9302 |
TRANSIT 350 LWB DIESEL RWD - High Roof Van TDCi 115ps |
2.88% |
98.0% |
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9551 |
SPRINTER 313CDI LONG DIESEL - 3.5t High Roof Van |
2.88% |
94.5% |
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17297 |
TRANSPORTER T28 SWB DIESEL - 2.0 TDI 102PS Van |
2.54% |
97.1% |
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7591 |
VIVARO SWB DIESEL - 1.9CDTI (82PS) Van 2.9t |
2.15% |
74.0% |
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10435 |
VIVARO LWB DIESEL - 2.0CDTI [115PS] Van 2.9t |
1.75% |
101.5% |
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9158 |
TRANSIT 280 SWB DIESEL FWD - Medium Roof Van TDCi 85ps |
1.53% |
102.5% |
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10405 |
TRAFIC SWB DIESEL - SL27dCi 115 Van |
1.41% |
97.2% |
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10525 |
RELAY 35 L3 DIESEL - 2.2 HDi H2 Van 120ps |
1.36% |
91.0% |
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The overall market prices of Panel Vans in this sector have weakened significantly this month resulting in a -3% downward price movement. Notable exceptions were… CITROEN RELAY (06- ) 3.5t VAN (-2%); CITROEN RELAY (06- ) VAN (-2%); FORD TRANSIT (00-06) T260 T280 T300 VAN (+3%); FORD TRANSIT (06- ) T250 - T300 VAN (-1%); FORD TRANSIT (06- ) T330 - T350 VAN (-1%); FORD TRANSIT (06-12) T250 - T350 PET VAN (-1%); M-B SPRINTER (06-13) 2-SERIES VAN (-3%); M-B VITO (03-10) CDi VAN (+3%); M-B VITO (03-10) DUALINER VAN (+3%); RENAULT MASTER (10- ) dCi VAN (-5%); RENAULT TRAFIC (06- ) dCi VAN (-5%); VAUXHALL VIVARO (06-11) VAN (-2%); VAUXHALL VIVARO (11- ) VAN (-2%); VW T5 TRANSPORTER (03-10) VAN (+3%); VW T5 TRANSPORTER (10- ) VAN (-2%).
Overall market price movements are Panel Van [-3%]; Tippers [0%]; Dropsides [+5%]; Chassis Cab [+5%], Boxes, Curtainsides, Lutons [0%]
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CAPId |
4x4 Pick-up Workhorse |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
|
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16756 |
HILUX DIESEL - HL2 2010 D/Cab Pick Up 2.5 D-4D 4WD 144 |
11.54% |
84.2% |
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11047 |
HILUX DIESEL - HL2 Pick Up 2.5 D-4D 120 |
7.69% |
71.9% |
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5413 |
NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up 4WD Di |
6.73% |
92.2% |
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11073 |
DEFENDER 110 LWB DIESEL - Hard Top TDCi |
5.77% |
87.2% |
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11045 |
HILUX DIESEL - HL2 D/Cab Pick Up 2.5 D-4D 4WD 120 |
3.85% |
81.3% |
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16480 |
L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D 4Work 4WD 134Bhp |
3.85% |
86.8% |
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11120 |
SHOGUN SWB DIESEL - 3.2 DI-DC Equippe Van |
3.85% |
102.7% |
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18668 |
L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D 4Work 4WD 134Bhp [2010] |
2.88% |
102.9% |
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16755 |
HILUX DIESEL - HL2 2010 Extra Cab Pick Up 2.5 D-4D 4WD 144 |
2.88% |
102.1% |
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8086 |
L200 LWB DIESEL - Club Cab TD 4Work 4WD 113Bhp |
1.92% |
115.0% |
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Demand for ‘Workhorse’ 4x4 Pick-ups remains flat and there is plenty of unsold stock around. In addition to last month’s -2% drop in the guide values, it would seem that vendors have further reduced their price aspirations and market prices have fallen on average by a further 5%. This has been reflected in this month’s edition by a -5% drop in values across most makes and models in this sector. Land Rover Defender 2007- model relationships have been reviewed in this edition resulting in some significant pricing movements. Notable exceptions are… TOYOTA HILUX (07-10) D-4D WORK (-8%) TOYOTA HILUX (10-13) D-4D WORK (-8%) |
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CAPId |
4x4 Pick-up Lifestyle SUV |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
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18622 |
L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D Barbarian 4WD 176Bhp |
7.76% |
90.6% |
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19137 |
NAVARA DIESEL - D/Cab Pick Up Tekna [Connect] 2.5dCi 190 4WD |
5.37% |
93.5% |
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18672 |
L200 LWB LB DIESEL - D/Cab DI-D Warrior II 4WD 176Bhp [2010] |
4.78% |
92.9% |
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18623 |
L200 LWB LB DIESEL - Double Cab DI-D Barbarian 4WD Auto 176Bhp |
4.78% |
91.5% |
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19134 |
NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Acenta 2.5dCi 190 4WD |
4.48% |
96.4% |
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21674 |
HILUX DIESEL - Invincible D/Cab P/Up 3.0 D-4D 4WD 171 Nav Lthr |
4.48% |
89.4% |
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19135 |
NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Tekna 2.5dCi 190 4WD |
3.88% |
92.7% |
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10497 |
NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Aventura 2.5dCi 169 4WD |
2.69% |
92.6% |
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19136 |
NAVARA DIESEL - Double Cab Pick Up Tekna 2.5dCi 190 4WD Auto |
2.69% |
93.8% |
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19501 |
HILUX DIESEL - Invincible 2010 D/Cab P/Up 3.0 D-4D 4WD 171Nav Lt |
2.09% |
92.1% |
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The sales performance for the Lifestyle sector was again disappointing at 94%. Only the cleanest highest spec vehicles in the most desirable colours and with good quality Truckman-type tops seem to be selling with any ease. After factoring in damage and taking into account those vehicles sold inclusive of VAT, an overall downward market movement of -5% has been necessary across all makes and models. |
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CAPId |
Minibuses |
Sector Share |
%CAP |
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9094 |
TRANSIT LWB MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 15 Seater TDCi 100ps |
20.51% |
105.0% |
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11354 |
TRANSIT LWB EL MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 17 Seater TDCi 115ps |
15.38% |
94.2% |
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11353 |
TRANSIT LWB EL MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 17 Seater TDCi 100ps |
12.82% |
96.6% |
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9095 |
TRANSIT LWB MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 15 Seater TDCi 115ps |
5.13% |
96.2% |
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11355 |
TRANSIT LWB EL MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 17 Seater TDCi 140ps |
5.13% |
98.9% |
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7426 |
TRANSIT 350 LWB MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 15 Seater TDi 115ps |
5.13% |
63.0% |
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11357 |
TRANSIT LWB EL MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - High Roof 17 Seater TDCi 115ps |
5.13% |
93.5% |
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22266 |
TRANSIT LWB EL MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 17 Seater TDCi 135ps |
5.13% |
89.5% |
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4874 |
TRANSIT 350 LWB MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 17 Seater TDi 90ps |
2.56% |
105.8% |
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7427 |
TRANSIT 350 LWB MINIBUS DIESEL RWD - Medium Roof 17 Seater TDi 115ps |
2.56% |
92.7% |
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Ford Transit models continue to dominate the used minibus sector of the market and defy any kind of logic when we attempt to reconcile actual sales prices against the established price walk-ups between models. In an attempt to more accurately reflect the prices that buyers are willing to pay for Transit Minibuses, we have taken this opportunity to revise the values relationships between various models which has resulted in some significant price changes in this edition. |
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